MARKET FIX 04/10/2021

USDZAR Possibility of a Pullback Before New Highs

After hitting resistance from the overhead diagonal trend line we have seen the USDZAR pulling back on last week Thursday and Friday. It would appear that for today at least a re-test of the new weekly pivot @ 14.98 is a likely scenario that could lead to another move lower towards ~14.70 should we see price getting rejected. This level offers support in terms of the 50 Daily SMA , Weekly S1 pivot , and VWAPs anchored from the previous 2 Months’ swing highs and swing lows. If however price also loses the latter support level a move to support near the Daily 100 SMA @ 14.43 could follow.

EURUSD Little Lower Followed by Re-test

The EURUSD has once again confirmed it is trading in a downtrend by breaking below previous structure lows last week. This implies that we could expect another pullback to somewhere slightly below the previous swing high. In terms of key resistance levels, there is the Weekly R1 @ 1.170 as well as the 50 Daily SMA @ 1.176 and Monthly R1 Pivot @ 1.180. But perhaps before all this, there might be one more push lower to diagonal support @ 1.154 after a failed test of the Weekly Pivot.

GBPUSD Head and Shoulders in Play

The GBPUSD has confirmed the large Head and Shoulders pattern with a break below the neckline @ 1.355 and I expect price to subsequently start breaking lower. I do however still think there could be one last pullback to above the neckline to either the Daily 21 EMA @ 1.365 or the Daily 50 SMA @ 1.378. But any bearish price action will likely see strong moves to the downside. The initial short target will be the Monthly S1 @ 1.330, with even lower targets as price pulls back and then breaks lower once again.

GBPNZD Range Break

GBPNZD has been consolidating above the Daily 200 SMA for the past month and finally saw a breakout conformed by a close last week. This signalled us to start looking for a long trade setup (which we have highlighted on the chart). The target is 1.965 with a stop @ 1.942

USDCHF Bullish Continuation Expected

Since breaking out of the Symmetrical triangle consolidation last month we have seen USDCHF successfully re-test the breakout followed by new highs. This leads me to suspect we will continue to see this bullish continuation until we eventually reach the full breakout target @ 0.947. In the interim, I expect a possible re-test of the Monthly Pivot @ 0.925 followed by a move to the Weekly R1 @ 0.936 and then the Monthly R1 @ 0.941.

NASDAQ Possible Head and Shoulders

With a break below 14840 the NASDAQ has confirmed a possible head and shoulders with a full short target near the Daily 200 SMA @ 14050. Currently, there is also very strong resistance in the form of the Monthly Pivot which coincides with the Yearly R1 Pivot @ 15000. This could indicate that the most probable scenario is a move lower to test diagonal support near the Weekly and Monthly R1 Pivots @ 1440.

Brent Crude Still Looks Good for More Upside

Brent crude is still looking very bullish since its breakout last month and could be seeing more upside after a test of support @ 76.40 (Monthly Pivot), in the event where this level fails there is even more support @ 73.00 where the Daily 50 and 100 SMA’s converge. Initial bullish targets include the Monthly R1 @ 82.50 and the Monthly R2 @ 86.80

GOLD Possible Double Bottom

Gold could very possibly be setting up a double bottom here, but with the medium-term trend still down it would be best to wait for confirmation from a break above at least 1780. For now, there is some support @ 1745 followed by more support @ 1705 should we see one more leg down. In terms of a strong bullish recovery back above 1780 there will be resistance from the key 1800 level where we have both the Daily 100 and 200 SMA’s converging on diagonal resistance.

BTCUSD Watch Out For The Supply Zone

Bitcoin is entering a large supply zone between 48.5k to 50.5k where we have lots of liquidity in play and from where big sellers could very likely start stepping in. If we see rejection from this zone a move to support @ 46.1k is very likely. And if we see a break below this key support level there is a very real chance for a deeper correction towards the Daily 365 SMA @ 38.5k