MARKET FIX 07/03/2022

USDZAR Possible Inverted Head and Shoulders

The inverted head and shoulders we have been monitoring have continued to form with the right shoulder now effectively in place and the yearly pivot @ 15.20 now well-established support. The trigger remains the break above 15.50 and will from there continue towards its target near 16.40.

GBPUSD Break in Price Structure

GBPUSD continues to trade below the previous price structure and is still well on its way to the target area @ 1.315. At this point, it also seems likely that we will see the Yearly S1 Pivot @ 1.304 being tested.

AUDUSD Double Bottom In-Play

The break above 0.730 not only broke diagonal resistance coinciding with the important Daily 200 SMA but also the neckline of the double bottom pattern. This is setting up a full target of 0.767. For now, we can see the price contending with the Yearly Pivot @ 0.741 and cannot rule out a re-test of the breakout level.

AUDCAD Bullish Trend Established

AUDCAD has seen a near textbook bearish trend based on the 5-phase-trend-evaluation method we use and with the break above the Daily 200 SMA has now established phase 1 of the new bullish trend. From here we will continue to expect higher lows and higher highs as the price make it’s way higher.

USDCHF Massive Symmetrical Consolidation

As both these traditional safe-haven currencies contend with each other on the global stage we continue to see consolidation in what is turning out to be a massive symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. At this point, the trend seems to favour a bullish outcome with a break higher possibly seeing the USD strengthening against the CHF in the long term. Support can be found @ 0.914 with a break above 0.925 the bullish trigger to watch.

NASDAQ Head and Shoulders

The NASDAQ has formed a clear head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder residing right on the Yearly S1 Pivot @ 13430. If we get a break below this level the bearish target will be @ 11200 with the Daily 21 EMA probably acting as dynamic resistance on the way down.

GOLD Continues To Head Higher

As mentioned in our report last week Gold has once again broken above the YR1 and is now heading even higher. Support for the week will be around 1940 to 1960 with a short to medium-term bullish target of 2100.

UKOIL Lot’s of Uncertainty Already priced In

As the oil price continues to surge ever higher I would like to point out the large double bottom formation present on the Weekly chart. This in fact hints toward a full target of 146 with most of the move already realized as a lot of uncertainty has already been priced in. I believe it is likely we will first see some consolidation between the YR2 @ 109 and YR3 @ 130 before the full target gets realized. In fact, this could very likely be the range we see oil trading in for the majority of the year.

BTCUSD Bears Remain In Control

Bitcoin once again rejected the Daily 100 SMA sending price back below the Monthly Pivot @ 41200. The next bearish target will be the Monthly S1 @ 36000 and after that the bearish target we have been pointing out for months @ 27500 (YR1). For now, the Daily 100 SMA (Currently @ 44k) will remain resistance.

USDZAR Bullish Reversal Confirmed

Friday’s bullish candle gives credence to the reversal of support from the Yearly Pivot @ 15.20. We will likely continue to see momentum building which could take us closer towards resistance @ 15.80. If we see a breakout here it will trigger the larger bull flag.

GBPUSD Follow the Daily 21 EMA

Since the rejection from the Yearly Pivot and Daily 200 SMA, the short-term trend has confirmed a bearish bias. As mentioned last week a correction like we currently have was good and a break back below the Daily 21 EMA will see a resumption of the downtrend

EURGBP Falling Wedge Validated

We have finally seen the bullish reversal we have been expecting for quite some time. The catalyst was the spike lower in order for buyers to grab liquidity and push the price to new highs. The falling wedge has now been validated and after a pullback to re-test the breakout around 0.840 another move higher can be expected.

GBPNZD Consolidating on YP

After rocketing through major resistance we are still consolidating above the yearly pivot. I still think the higher probability outcome here is a correction back towards at least the 2.00 level with a break back below the YP trigger to keep an eye out for.

AUDUSD Bearish Continuation Expected

Last week we mentioned that we were expecting a slight correction while the overall trend will remain bearish. The correction seems to have found resistance from the Daily 50 SMA and a break below the new weekly pivot @ 0.707 will likely be the trigger for the next leg down.

GBPCAD Test of Yearly Pivot

As we mentioned last week the Daily 200 SMA was the technical level to watch as a break higher will see another test of the Yearly Pivot @ 1.720. This has now happened and now we need to see whether the YP will hold as support or fail with the price heading lower once again.

USDJPY Trending Higher

The bullish trend remains intact with prices remaining above the Daily 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Targets include a new high above the Monthly R1 Pivot @ 114.5 which is also close to the top of the current bullish channel.

NASDAQ Correction Completed

Last week we mentioned that we could likely see a re-test of the important breakout level @ 15000. Since this has now happened and we seem to be rejecting this area which is now acting as resistance. We can thus look to expect another move toward support @ ~13500.

GOLD Higher Highs and Higher Lows

We started seeing some bullish price action last week with prices starting to peek out above the confluence of Daily MA’s. The near term target will be the Yearly Pivot @ 1825 while support will be the Daily 100 SMA @ 1795.

BTCUSD Testing Resistance

Bitcoin while currently correcting remains to look weak from a technical standpoint. If the price can manage to clear the Daily 50 SMA @ 43k there is a major resistance zone overhead between 48k and 50k which will act as even stronger resistance. But should we see failure in either of these areas the bearish trend could likely continue lower towards the next major area of support all the way down near the Yearly S1 Pivot @ 26.5k.