MARKET FIX 11/07/2022

DXY Approaching Boundary Resistance

The USD Index despite being in a strong bullish trend is fast approaching upper boundary resistance which coincides with the Monthly R2 @ 108.18. The expectation here would be that we see a slight correction to the mean with the Weekly R1 @ 105.2 being the immediate target.

USDZAR Bullish Wave Confirmed

Last week saw price reaching our bullish target @ 16.96 meaning we will be looking for both a stretch target as well as a possible correction. In terms of a stretch target, we have the MR2 @ 17.28. We also have the YR1 @ 17.07 which could act as resistance giving us a test of the WP @ 16.68 and even a possible correction to the WS1 @ 16.38

GBPUSD Bullish Pennant

Last week we mentioned the possibility of a double bottom forming, but considering what we see on the DXY it is quite possible that we will still have a slightly lower low to test the lower diagonal support boundary @ 1.173 (also the WS2). This could effectively sketch a bullish penant with breakout targets @ 1.225 (MP) and eventually 1.255 (YS2).

EURGBP Pullback to Major Support

Following a strong break in price structure the EURGBP head straight for major support from the Daily 200 and 100 SMA @ 0.845. Considering the fact that the overall trend is still bullish, the expectation here would be for a bullish reversal. The initial corrective target would be the WP @ 0.850 followed by a re-test of the YP @ 0.862. We also have some additional support below last week’s lows @ 0.841 should price head a little lower still.

AUDUSD Testing Major Support

Similar to last week we still have the AUDUSD contending with support from the Yearly S1 @ 0.683 and depending on whether this level holds, we will either see a breakout lower targeting support @ 0.668 or a breakout above the Daily 21 EMA @ 0.690 targeting the untetsed Monthly Pivot and Daily 50 SMA @ 0.701

USDCAD Still Channel Bound

USDCAD continues to trade within the bullish channel for now with price coming very close to our bullish target near the upper boundary last week. The trend remains bullish in nature and a tets of support from the Monthly pivot @ 1.282 could present a buying opportunity. The bullish target remains the upper boundary @ 1.311

USDCHF Watch The Yearly R2 Pivot

Following the successful test of support two weeks ago we are fast approaching our bullish target at the YR2 resistance level @ 0.983. This level also coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level should we see a bearish reversal. The stretch bullish taregt will now be the MR1 @ 0.989 with support sitting @ 0.969 (MP and WP)

GOLD Failure of Long-Term Diagonal Support

Following the failure of the long-term diagonal support last week we had a slight bullish hope following the formation of a bullish hammer. But as it is with these candlestick patterns a failure of the pattern usually sees even more downside. For this reason, I suspect we will see a test of major long-term horizontal support from the YS1 @ 1682. The long-term diagonal boundary @ 1822 now becomes resistance.

UKOIL Re-test of Bearish Breakout

Following a bearish break and re-test of major support @ 108, we now suspect likely bearish continuation with targets @ 98.67 and eventually 90.60. Only once we have a convincing bullish break above the Daily 100 SMA @ 112 will see further upside.

BTCUSD Possible Bearish Flag

With price action continuing to edge sideways in a tight slightly upwards angle. I suspect we could be seeing the formation of another bearish flag forming similar to the one we saw between 10-May and 10-Jun. This will mean that a break below 19300 could trigger the bearish move to 14k that we have been expecting. Resistance will be the untested Monthly pivot @ 23.1k

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MARKET FIX 11/07/2022

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