MARKET FIX 14/03/2022

USDZAR Inverted Head and Shoulders Extended

The inverted head and shoulders we have been monitoring have broken back below the yearly pivot and effectively extended the bottom of the right shoulder. The pattern will remain valid as long as the right shoulder does not break below the head. Considering we have now tested the Daily 200 SMA and Monthly S1 pivot this actually seems like a logical place for the right shoulder to turn. Initial targets will be the Monthly Pivot @ 15.27 followed by the Inv HnS neckline @ 15.45.

USDJPY Top of Bullish Channel

USDJPY has now reached the top of its bullish channel and we expect one of two things to occur here. Either we continue to break higher towards the YR1 @ 119 with the top of the channel becoming support or we see price correcting back into the channel testing to around 116 which.

AUDUSD Deeper Pullback Likely

What initially appeared to be a re-test of the breakout level from the double bottom and also the bearish channel, is now looking to turn into a slightly deeper correction with the Monthly Pivot @ 0.720 now a possible target considering this is also where we have additional support from the Daily 50 and 100 SMA’s.

AUDCAD Breakout Level Tested

AUDCAD has seen a near textbook bearish trend based on the 5-phase-trend-evaluation method we use and with the break above the Daily 200 SMA has now established phase 1 of the new bullish trend. We are currently seeing a possible re-test of the breakout level @ 0.922. This will provide traders with a good long opportunity should we see some bullish price action from this area of support.

USDCHF Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

Last week we mentioned that we were in favor of a bullish outcome with a break from the diagonal resistance to be expected. We now have our break and perhaps pending a possible re-test of the breakout level and weekly pivot @ 0.928 the bullish target remains above 0.940 with the YR1 @ 0.946 the full target.

NASDAQ Head and Shoulders

The NASDAQ has formed a clear head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder residing right on the Yearly S1 Pivot @ 13430. As long as we remain below this level the bearish target will be @ 11200 with the Daily 21 EMA acting as dynamic resistance on the way down.

GOLD Possible Bull Flag Forming

Since the initial rally, gold has seen some corrective action over the past few trading days with price currently re-testing the Yearly R1 pivot @ 1970. It is very possible that we see some kind of bull-flag forming with more upside once we break back above ~2005. For now, a test of the Weekly S1 and 21 Daily SMA around 1950 is the most likely scenario.

UKOIL Lower Range Boundary

As the oil price continues to surge ever higher I would like to point out the large double bottom formation present on the Weekly chart. This in fact hints toward a full target of 146 with most of the move already realized as a lot of uncertainty has already been priced in. I believe it is likely we will first see some consolidation between the YR2 @ 109 and YR3 @ 130 before the full target gets realized. In fact, this could very likely be the range we see oil trading in for the majority of the year. (View unchanged from last week).

BTCUSD Bears Remain In Control

Bitcoin once again rejected the Daily 100 SMA sending price back below the Monthly Pivot @ 41200. The next bearish target will be the Monthly S1 @ 36000 and after that the bearish target we have been pointing out for months @ 27500 (YR1). For now, the Daily 100 SMA (Currently @ 44k) and also the Monthly Pivot @ 41k will remain resistance.