MARKET FIX 18/07/2022

DXY Rejection From Resistance

Following a test of the upper boundary and resistance, we are seeing some rejection which could see the DXY head for a correction and test of the MR1 @ 106.2. The trend remains bullish in the medium term so we are only expecting this to be a short term correction.

USDZAR Bullish Wave Confirmed

Last week saw price reach our stretch target being reached at the MR2 and the more likely scenario would now be a small pullback and correction to test the MR1 @ 16.77. Failure of this support level could see a deeper correction to the Daily 50 SMA @ 16.11

EURUSD Possible Reversal

Following EUR parity with the USD, we are seeing some bullish price action which could be indicative of a correction in line with what we also see in the DXY chart. The correction is expected to target the MS1 @ 1.029 with the possibility of a test of the upper boundary near the Daily 50 SMA also possible @ 1.043

EURGBP Successful Test of Major Support

As it turns out we did end up seeing a lower test to 0.841 as we mentioned could be the case last week. However, following this ‘last’ low we have had some bullish price action which could see a recovery of the EURGBP to around 0.853 which is also the Daily 50 SMA. Failure at any point will likely see another test of last week’s low.

AUDUSD Big Level to Test

Following a test of major support from the MS1 and the lower diagonal boundary, price is now facing a big test of the important YS1 pivot @ 0.683. If price can overcome this level we will likely see a test of the monthly pivot @ 0.700 with the YS1 becomming support going forward.

USDCAD Still Channel Bound

USDCAD continues to trade within the bullish channel following a test and rejection of the upper boundary last week. While there is still support in the upper half of the channel @ 1.289 which is the convergence level of the Daily 50 SMA and WS1 a break lower could see a test of support somewhere in the lower half of the channel.

USDCHF Rejection of Yearly R2 Pivot

Last week we called for close observation of price action at the YR2 resistance level @ 0.983 as this level coincides with the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level. This effectively means rejection here could see a bearish reversal back to the lower boundary. So for this week we will look for a test of the MP @ 0.969 followed by a test of the Daily 100 SMA @ 0.960

GOLD Further Downside Expected

I am still expecting more downside with a test of major support from the YS1 @ 1682 the highest probability scenario considering the recent bearish break below long term support. Once this level has been tested we could look for a bullish correction to 1750.

UKOIL Too Soon For Reversal?

Following a bearish break and re-test of major support @ 108, we were expecting a measured bearish move to around the ~ 90 level. However, it seems that we found some support from the Daily 200 SMA last week and the question now remain whether we will see bullish follow through or perhaps another sell-off with price testing major support from the YR1 @ 93.00

BTCUSD Possible Bearish Flag

With price action still edging sideways in a tight slightly upwards angle the possibility of another bearish flag similar to the one we saw between 10-May and 10-Jun firmly remains. In this scenario we would expect a rejection of the upper boundary @ 23280 which is both the Daily 50 SMA and Monthly Pivot. Ultimately a break of the lower boundary (below 19600) will trigger the bearish move to 14k that we have been expecting.

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MARKET FIX 18/07/2022

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