MARKET FIX 21/02/2022

USDZAR Deeper Support Being Tested

Support in terms of the Yearly Pivot has failed to hold last week and price has now in line with our bearish scenario from last week tested deeper support from the Daily 200 SMA and Monthly S1 Pivots. If we find support year I would expect a recovery to resistance from the Daily 100 SMA and Monthly Pivot @ 15.50. If support fails a test of the 10-Year diagonal support level (currently @ 14.45) could play out.

GBPUSD Still Consolidating

Price is still stuck in consolidation below the Yearly Pivot @ 1.365, which is also the no man’s zone between the Daily 100 and 200 SMA’s and also the MP and MR1. In terms of a breakout these would be the levels to watch.

GBPNZD Double Top or Bull Flag?

At this point we might either be looking at the formation of a bull flag with a break above last week’s high targeting a new high @ 2.07 (MR1) or a possible double top with a break below the Monthly Pivot (also acting as the neckline) targeting a correction to support @ ~1.99 (MS1) or 1.975 (50% Fib and Major MA’s)

AUDUSD Another Test of the Daily 100 SMA

Last week saw a slight recovery and is now again testing the Daily 100 SMA which is acting as an important resistance level. The Daily 21 EMA and Weekly Pivot is now interim support and a break below could see the bearish scenario playing out to 0.684 over the coming weeks.

EURCHF Broadening Formation

Connecting the swing highs and lows over the past few months gives a clear picture of a broadening formation in what is still a clear downtrend. Currently price is trading right in the middle of the range with the Daily 50 SMA and Monthly Pivot @ 1.04 acting as support. Failure of this level could see price heading towards diagonal support below the currently Monthly S1 @ 1.03

USDJPY Possible Test of Daily 100 SMA

Despite the current bullish trend price has not seen a lot of momentum lately and continues to test support levels (without making new lows). Overall the trend is still bullish and after a possible test of the Daily 100 SMA @ 114.08 we could hopefully see another move higher towards 116.50 and above

NASDAQ Still Trending Lower

Price remains to trend lower with the Daily 21 EMA pointing down and price still looking for support. The next level of support remains @ ~13500 which is the Yearly S1 and also the Monthly S1 Pivot. Failure here would be very bearish but could be strong enough support that we first see a correction.

GOLD Breakout and Correction

Price is continuing to break higher with support levels now also moving higher with price. At this point we have the Weekly Pivot @ 1875 that will act as support in the event of a correction. In terms of additional bullish targets we still have the Monthly R3 @ 1915.

BTCUSD Continues To Struggle

Weakness continues to overshadow cryptocurrencies with bitcoin clearly not able to catch a bid. Price has once again lost support and the bearish target near 27k is once again in clear sight. I still do not rule out a quick correction and pullback to ~46k but this test of resistance will not yet change the current bearish trend.

USDZAR Bullish Reversal Confirmed

Friday’s bullish candle gives credence to the reversal of support from the Yearly Pivot @ 15.20. We will likely continue to see momentum building which could take us closer towards resistance @ 15.80. If we see a breakout here it will trigger the larger bull flag.

GBPUSD Follow the Daily 21 EMA

Since the rejection from the Yearly Pivot and Daily 200 SMA, the short-term trend has confirmed a bearish bias. As mentioned last week a correction like we currently have was good and a break back below the Daily 21 EMA will see a resumption of the downtrend

EURGBP Falling Wedge Validated

We have finally seen the bullish reversal we have been expecting for quite some time. The catalyst was the spike lower in order for buyers to grab liquidity and push the price to new highs. The falling wedge has now been validated and after a pullback to re-test the breakout around 0.840 another move higher can be expected.

GBPNZD Consolidating on YP

After rocketing through major resistance we are still consolidating above the yearly pivot. I still think the higher probability outcome here is a correction back towards at least the 2.00 level with a break back below the YP trigger to keep an eye out for.

AUDUSD Bearish Continuation Expected

Last week we mentioned that we were expecting a slight correction while the overall trend will remain bearish. The correction seems to have found resistance from the Daily 50 SMA and a break below the new weekly pivot @ 0.707 will likely be the trigger for the next leg down.

GBPCAD Test of Yearly Pivot

As we mentioned last week the Daily 200 SMA was the technical level to watch as a break higher will see another test of the Yearly Pivot @ 1.720. This has now happened and now we need to see whether the YP will hold as support or fail with the price heading lower once again.

USDJPY Trending Higher

The bullish trend remains intact with prices remaining above the Daily 21 EMA and 50 SMA. Targets include a new high above the Monthly R1 Pivot @ 114.5 which is also close to the top of the current bullish channel.

NASDAQ Correction Completed

Last week we mentioned that we could likely see a re-test of the important breakout level @ 15000. Since this has now happened and we seem to be rejecting this area which is now acting as resistance. We can thus look to expect another move toward support @ ~13500.

GOLD Higher Highs and Higher Lows

We started seeing some bullish price action last week with prices starting to peek out above the confluence of Daily MA’s. The near term target will be the Yearly Pivot @ 1825 while support will be the Daily 100 SMA @ 1795.

BTCUSD Testing Resistance

Bitcoin while currently correcting remains to look weak from a technical standpoint. If the price can manage to clear the Daily 50 SMA @ 43k there is a major resistance zone overhead between 48k and 50k which will act as even stronger resistance. But should we see failure in either of these areas the bearish trend could likely continue lower towards the next major area of support all the way down near the Yearly S1 Pivot @ 26.5k.