MARKET FIX 21/03/2022

USDZAR General Correction Wave

What I initially thought will turn out to be an inverted head and shoulders pattern has now been invalidated due to what would have been the right shoulder breaking below the low of the ‘head’. This leads me to believe we are rather looking at a general corrective wave. The current pullback is now right at the 61.8% Fibonacci level and with additional support from the Weekly S1 pivot @ 14.78, this could be the reversal zone. However, if the price continues lower we will probably test the 10-Year diagonal support @ 14.55.

AUDUSD Deeper Pullback Complete

Last week we mentioned that we were expecting a deeper correction to the Monthly Pivot @ 0.720 seeing this is also where we had additional support from the Daily 50 and 100 SMA’s. This has now played out and we are now once again testing the highs at the Yearly Pivot. This level is showing strong resistance so another smaller pullback to perhaps the Weekly Pivot @ 0.733 is not unlikely before we can expect another attempt at breaking through the YP heading for the initial bullish target @ 0.750.

AUDCAD Breakout Level Tested

The breakout re-test we expected now seems complete and pending a small correction to test the new weekly pivot @ 0.929 we could see price breaking through the Yearly Pivot and making a new high around 0.948.

EURCHF Reversal From Monthly Pivot

The EUCHF has seen a strong corrective wave all the way back to the Daily 100 SMA and Monthly Pivot which it now seems to have rejected. This could mean that we will continuation of the bearish trend with targets @ 1.016 (MS1) followed by 1.007 (YS1) and below.

USDCHF Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

The symmetrical triangle we discussed last week is still valid and for now, we can expect a re-test of the breakout level near the Monthly R1 pivot @ 0.925. From here I would expect a reversal leading price higher back towards the weekly Pivot @ 0.936.

NASDAQ 10% Rally on Options Expiry

Quarterly options expiry on Friday has seen price rallying a whopping 10% all the way back to the Daily 50 SMA @ 14475 no doubt flushing many shorts and causing most puts to expire out of the money. The head and shoulders remain valid and I expect a bearish reversal with the YS1 @ 13400 the initial target.

GOLD Looking For The Reversal

Gold saw a big correction last week with price testing some important levels of support near the Monthly Pivot. For now, we continue to watch for a reversal with a break above 1950 the level to watch as this will likely usher in the next move higher with targets @ 1992 and eventually 2100.

UKOIL Re-test of Diagonal Support and MP

Brent crude also saw a strong correction last week with price heading back to re-test the diagonal breakout level which along with the monthly pivot acted as strong support. Price is already heading higher once again with initial targets @ 115 (MR2) followed by the possibility of another test of the upper range near the YR3 @ 128.

BTCUSD Consolidation

Bitcoin once again rejected the Daily 100 SMA sending price back below the Monthly Pivot @ 41200. The next bearish target will be the Monthly S1 @ 36000 and after that the bearish target we have been pointing out for months @ 26500-27000 (YR1). For now, the Daily 100 SMA (Currently @ 42500) will remain to act as resistance with a break higher opening up the possibility of testing resistance @ 45000-47000.